Track 2015 Expert Stock Predictions for NIFTY and SENSEX

Come year end and everyone and their brothers come out with stock predictions for the next year. Stock gurus are no different. Brokerages come out with their year-end targets for indices. Often these are horribly wrong and almost always, brokerages tend to issue a higher target when the market is going up, and revise it downwards when the market is going down.

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These days since the markets are going up, all brokerages are scampering to issue higher Sensex and Nifty targets, and it’s funny to see a whole bunch of them issuing a target that is close to what the others are issuing, and you feel that surely these people are hedging their bets, and don’t mind being wrong in a herd rather than be correct alone.

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There’s rarely any accountability on what happened versus what they said.

The stock market rally this year has been more about “easy money” from abroad coming into India, rather than any fundamental improvement in economic activity. This year, foreign institutional investors have made a net investment of over Rs 50,000 crore into the Indian stock market. This has largely been on account of Western central banks maintaining low interest rates. Hence, foreign investors have been able to borrow money at low interest rates and invest it in the Indian stock market.

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In this post, I have collated targets for NIFTY, SENSEX and the GDP from various experts. We will review them around June and then in December 2015. It will be interesting to see who was right, and how close to their predictions.

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Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS – “See NIFTY at 9000 by March 2015” (Source)

Mid Year Review: MISS! NIFTY is currently at 8381. Vibhav Kapoor can still claim success as there were 2 days when Nifty touched above 9000.  Active traders, people who watch and trade regularly could have benefited from this forecast. In 2 weeks since touching 9000, Nifty is in the 8250-8350 range.

Year End Status: NIFTY ended year 2015 at around 7950. Vibhav’s estimate is off by 13%.

Hartmut Issel of UBS – “Nifty could trade between 9000 & 9500 by December 2015” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: With NIFTY below 8400, it is still a way off the prediction. So far, it is a MISS.

Year End Status: Hartmut is also off by 13%.

UBS bullish on Indian equities sets end-2015 Nifty target at 9,600 (Source)

Mid-Year Review: The forecast is way off! What a waste.

Year End Status: UBS is way off by 20%!

Ambit Capital – “March 2015 Sensex target of 30000” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: With SENSEX at 27800, it is a MISS.

Year End Status: SENSEX ended the year at about 26100. Ambit Capital missed their target by 15%.

Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley – “Dec 2015 Sensex target 32500” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: Ridham’s forecast is way off at the half way point. I would call it a MISS.

Year End Status: Ridham’s is off target by a whopping 24%!

JM Financials – “See Nifty at 10700 by Dec 2015” (Source)

Mid-Year Review:  NIFTY has to go up by 2000 points in six months for the forecast to be right. A big MISS.

Year End Status: JM Financials is off target by a huge 34%!

Edelweiss – “Sensex to touch 29,600 by March 2015” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: Edelweiss is probably the most accurate. They are just 10% off.

Gautam Chhaochharia and Sanjena Dadawala of UBS Global Research“Nifty will touch 9,600 points by the end of 2015.” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: Wow! Not sure how they came up with a NIFTY target of 9600. It is a big MISS.

Year End Status: UBS is off by 20%

Alok Aggarwal, co-founder and chairman of Evalueserve – “SENSEX could touch the 50,000-mark by the December 2015(Source)

Mid-Year Review: Same as UBS. Way to optimistic!

Year End Status: Really??

Atul Suri of Rare Enterprises (Rakesh Jhunjhunwala) – “Nifty Will Surge To 10,460 By Mid 2015” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: I wonder what these experts have to say now about their year end reviews!

Year End Status:  Our own Oracle of Omaha is off by a HUGE 31%!

Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs -“NSE Nifty to hit 9,500 by end-2015” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: Another MISS!

Year End Status:  Missed by 19%

Consensus of 18 Analysts – “BSE Sensex to End Year at 28,000; Reach 32,500 by End-2015” (Source)

Mid-Year Review: The consensus is right on target – It is a HIT!

Economic Growth

  • IMF – “In 2015-16, India’s economy to grow 6.4%” (Source)
  • World Bank – “India’s 2015-16 growth at 6.7%” (Source)
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) – “Revising India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.3 per cent in 2015 (Source)
  • Nomura – “6% growth for India in 2015” (Source)
  • Kotak Securities – “GDP is expected to grow over 6% in 2015” (Source)
  • India Ratings – “Lowers FY15 Growth Forecast to 5.6%” (Source)

Mid Year Review – Almost everyone has revised down the growth rate in the last 6 months. Let’s see how the year ends.

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March End Review

  • Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS – “See NIFTY at 9000 by March 2015” (Source) – Vibhav Kapoor can claim success even though the Nifty is at 8300 now. There were 2 days when Nifty touched above 9000.  This means, traders who are active in the market, people who watch and trade actively could have benefited from this forecast. In 2 weeks since touching 9000, Nifty is in the 8250-8350 range.
  • Ambit Capital – “March 2015 Sensex target of 30000” (Source) – Ambit Capital can also claim success, just as Vibhav Kapoor. Sensex touched 30,000 for one day. However, it closed below 29,500 that day. Since then the Sensex has dropped 2000 points to close below 27,500 today. You would have benefited from this forecast if you booked profit right at the top, intraday, when Sensex hit 30,000.
  • Edelweiss – “Sensex to touch 29,600 by March 2015” (Source) – To Edelweiss’ credit, Sensex did close above or around 29,600 for several days. Actively (and disciplined) investors would have profited from this forecast as there was enough time to sell at that level.
  • Atul Suri of Rare Enterprises (Rakesh Jhunjhunwala) – “Nifty Will Surge To 10,460 By Mid 2015” – (Source) – Well, Atul Suri’s forecast has turned out to be way off so far, but he still has another 3 months to go.

Update: 22nd April 2015

  • Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS had forecasted  “NIFTY at 9000 by March 2015”. Today he says “He expects the market to now trade in the 7600-8600 range for the next 2 months.” (Source). How times change!

Update: 8th May 2015

  • NIFTY made a high of 9119 on March 4th 2015 and a low of 7997 on May 7th – a drop of 1122 points (12%). Not a single expert predicted this drop, or even anywhere close to it.

Mid Year Review

As I write this, it’s the last weekend of June. NIFTY ended the week at 8381 and SENSEX at 27811.

Update: 3rd September 2015

Nifty is trading at below 7800 and SENSEX below 25500. All stock market pundits are way off their forecasts!

In my book, ‘Stock Picking Made Easy’, you will find a simple strategy to identify great companies at reasonable valuations in the Indian Stock Exchange. Identifying great companies at the right time is the key to long term wealth creation.

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